Generational trends in cancer incidence by race and ethnicity: implications for health equity in diverse populations — The Association Specialists
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  3. Generational trends in cancer incidence by race and ethnicity: implications for health equity in diverse populations

Generational trends in cancer incidence by race and ethnicity: implications for health equity in diverse populations (23769)

Yiping Wang 1 , Robert J. MacInnis 1 2 , Ye Ella Tian 1 , Shuai Li 1
  1. University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  2. Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Background

Rising early-onset cancer incidence worldwide raises concerns about future disease burden. Cancer risk also varies across racial and ethnic groups due to differences in biology, exposures, and social determinants of health. However, how generational trends in cancer incidence differ across these groups remains unclear. This study examined birth cohort patterns in cancer incidence by race and ethnicity, with implications for health equity in diverse populations.

 

Methods

Population-based cancer registry data from US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (1992–2019) were analysed. Age-standardised incidence rates for 25 cancers were calculated across racial and ethnic groups (White, Black, Hispanic, Other). Birth cohorts (1910–1999) were constructed, and age-adjusted Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) relative to the 1950–1959 cohort. Heterogeneity by race and ethnicity was evaluated using likelihood ratio tests.

 

Results

Among 3.9 million cancer cases, incidence increased in younger birth cohorts in 15 of 25 cancers, accompanied by stable or declining trends in older cohorts. Birth cohort-specific IRR patterns varied by race and ethnicity, with heterogeneity observed for nearly all cancers. Specifically, incidence declined in older cohorts born before 1950 but rose in younger cohorts born after 1959 for all cancers and solid tumors in non-Black groups, breast cancer in White group, and colorectal cancer across all races and ethnicities. Endometrial, renal, and pancreatic cancers increased across successive cohorts, particularly among Hispanic group. In contrast, declining generational trends were observed for all cancers and solid tumors in Black group, and for prostate, lung, and cervical cancers across all races and ethnicities.

 

Conclusion

Incidence of 15 cancer types is rising in younger generations, with substantial variation across racial and ethnic groups. These patterns highlight the role of early-life exposures and widening health inequities, informing targeted prevention and supporting equitable cancer control in diverse populations.