Meteorological determinants of malaria and dengue in the Solomon Islands: Preliminary findings from quantitative study. — The Association Specialists
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Meteorological determinants of malaria and dengue in the Solomon Islands: Preliminary findings from quantitative study. (23810)

Jamesford JFK Keboy 1 , Masako Wada 1 , Hugo Bugoro 2
  1. Massey University, Palmerston North 9481, NEW ZEALAND, New Zealand
  2. Office of Research and Post Graduate Studies , Solomon Island National University (SINU), Honiara, Solomon Islands

Background:
Climate change is increasingly recognised as a critical driver of vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission, particularly in Small Island Developing States such as the Solomon Islands. Malaria and dengue are the dominant VBDs in the Solomon Islands, continuing to impose a substantial public health burden. However, there is limited integration of climate and health data to support timely and evidence-based interventions. This study examines the influence of meteorological variability on disease risk to inform climate-responsive surveillance and control strategies.

Methods:
A quantitative study was conducted using Solomon Island national meteorological data, including rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity, alongside routine malaria surveillance data from 2000 to 2026 across the country.  Statistical analyses were conducted to assess spatiotemporal associations between climatic variables and disease incidence. Seasonal trends and delayed effects of climatic factors on disease transmission were examined.

Results:
Preliminary findings indicate distinct seasonal patterns in rainfall and temperature, with increased rainfall associated with environmental conditions favourable for vector proliferation. Early analyses suggest a lagged relationship between rainfall and malaria incidence, with case increases following periods of elevated rainfall. These findings are consistent with climate-sensitive transmission pathways and highlight the potential for predictive modelling. Analysis of dengue data and qualitative findings is ongoing.

Conclusion:
This study provides preliminary evidence that meteorological factors play a significant role in shaping malaria transmission in the Solomon Islands. Integrating climate data into routine surveillance systems could enhance early warning capabilities and support targeted public health interventions. These findings contribute to broader efforts to develop climate-informed epidemiological approaches and support resilient, One Health-oriented health systems in the Pacific region.

Key words

Climate change, Vector-borne diseases, Malaria, Dengue, Meteorological factors, Solomon Islands and Climate-informed surveillance.