Background: The global spread of H5N1 presents a critical threat to the Pacific, a region at a nexus for migratory bird paths and smallholder poultry farming. While active surveillance—proactive sampling of healthy populations—is often recommended, it faces geographical and financial hurdles in the Pacific. This presentation argues that over-reliance on resource-heavy active sampling can create performative rather than protective biosecurity, plagued by diagnostic lags and supported by unsustainable ‘boom-and-bust’ funding cycles.

Methods: This strategic analysis evaluates H5N1 surveillance approaches against the realities of the Blue Continent. It examines the limitations of active sampling—such as the number and frequency of sampling that would be required for detection—and suggests a rebalance. The proposed approach prioritises the first signal by redirecting resources toward a passive surveillance. Active surveillance is not disregarded because while active samples are likely to be negative, the process involved establishes structure and identifies gaps in sample collection, laboratory transport and communication of results, ensuring the system is functional and prepared for a true positive event; which is most likely to be detected by passive surveillance. Active surveillance should be targeted and risk-based and form only a minor component of the overall surveillance spend; not performed sporadically as the main focus of H5N1 surveillance. 

 Results: The analysis indicates that a robust passive system, centred on reporting of unusual mortality events, offers higher sensitivity for early detection than periodic active sampling. By investing in community-led detection, mobile communication tools, and trigger-based response kits, time-to-action can be reduced.

 Conclusion: In a potential H5N1 pandemic, a highly sensitive passive network is more likely to detect an incursion than a fragmented active-only system. Prioritising resources frontline networks empowers Pacific communities as the primary defence, ensuring biosecurity is culturally integrated, economically sustainable, and rapid enough to act when it matters most.